Análisis y pronóstico de la recaudación tributaria en el Ecuador en el periodo 2000 a 2023 aplicando la metodología Box-Jenkins.

Abstract

This research contains an analysis and comparison of tax collection in Ecuador from 2000 to 2023, as well as a forecast of gross tax collection for 2024 and 2025 in quarters, through the application of time series models. The collection analysis is based on the Box-Jenkins methodology to identify an optimal model, which allows incorporating factors that influence tax collection, and thus, determine the forecasts, so the application of different statistical tools, allowed determining the ARIMA model (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) or autoregressive integrated moving average models, as the most appropriate, based on the characteristics of the data obtained by the Internal Revenue Service.