Análisis del producto interno bruto (PIB) y el consumo de Ecuador en el periodo 2000-2023.

Abstract

Consumption and GDP are fundamental macroeconomic variables to identify the economic development of a country. In this research, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and consumption of Ecuador were studied in the period 2000-2023, with the purpose of contrasting the Keynesian theory of absolute income and determining what has been the incidence of GDP on consumption. To do this, time series data were extracted from the Central Bank of Ecuador on an annual and quarterly basis. Methodologically, the research was developed through a two-phase econometric strategy: implementation of a linear regression model, through the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, for which it was necessary to verify the non-stationarity of the series and then the application of first differences. In addition, the estimation of a VAR model (3) and its respective validation. Among the most relevant results is that for the case of Ecuador the validity of the Keynesian consumption function is confirmed with an R-squared of 81.6% and a statistically significant marginal propensity of 0.75. The Vector Autoregressive model, when estimated with the optimal number of lags, turned out to be statistically significant and stable, showing, among other things, a bidirectional Granger causality.