Análisis de los determinantes del desempleo con base en el Enemdu 2023.

Abstract

Unemployment and poverty have been two structural and historical problems in Ecuador. In this sense, the main objective of this descriptive study is to analyze the determinants of unemployment based on the ENEMDU 2023 in Ecuador. The ENEMDU determines the structure and behavior of the labor market, which is made up of the employed population (full employment, underemployment, unpaid employment, etc.) and the unemployed. Briefly, Ecuador's labor market is submerged in informality; only 3 out of 10 citizens have full or adequate employment. Unemployment in 2023 was 3.6% and is more marked among young people, women, urban sector and provinces such as Esmeraldas and Pichincha. Because of unemployment many compatriots have migrated using informal mechanisms such as the Darien jungle. It highlights the importance of economic growth, public investment, private and foreign investment, as well as active employment policies to expand the range of opportunities for citizens and thus reduce the unemployment rate. Finally, the application of a regression model determines that, between the period 1990 and 2023, there is a positive relationship between the variables unemployment and poverty in Ecuador. Therefore, as the unemployment rate decreases, poverty also decreases. The logit econometric model validates that the variables area, the number of household members, age, marital status and educational level are determinants of unemployment, and labor income are determinants of unemployment.